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UEDF could transform itself in to a force if member political party tries to understand fears and aspiration of other members’ parties rather than getting

fixated with their own problems. The usual rhetoric, incrimination, playing victim or short term strategic political alliance could lead to a temporary

satisfaction but will cause a fatal blow to the credibility of opposition parties.

When delegates of the Ethiopian opposition political parties arrive in Washington, for the first UEDF review meeting, there is no doubt that all of them

will arrive with a baggage of hidden fears. These hidden fears will not be manifested openly; instead politicians will try to outmanoeuvre each other to get

what they want at the end of the meeting.

But by focusing on short-term victory, UEDF member may drive the Ethiopian people further into political apathy or uncontrollable rage against opposition parties.

This is not speculation, but the public is tired of listening to disagreements over semantics and trivial issues, which are often created to mask the major

fears and aspirations party leaders.

In this article I will try to uncover hidden fears of each political players to save them beating around the bush in the meeting hall and help them build some

understanding. I sincerly believe that there is enough time to save UEDF from failing in to traps of CODEF and Alternative Forces (CAFPDE).

We should not forget that CODEF failed because member organisation could not trust each other. They feared being domination by EPRP so founders let CODEF die. Again groups that have fears of each other formed Alternative Forces (CAFPDE) but soon abandoned it for fear being a support group of SEPDC (Southern Ethiopia). Hence, understanding fears of each Ethiopian political party is vital in resolving underlying fear that is tearing down UEDF.

It is important that UEDF leaders learn form previous failed coalitions to reassure each other that UEDF is not designed to control or dominate unsuspecting

political groups through the back door.

Ghandi, the master political negotiation, brought the end of the British Empire by putting himself in his opponent’s shoe. Before getting in to meetings he tries

to imagine himself sitting on chair of the British negotiator to see everything from British point of view. He tires to see the fear and aspiration of the

British Empire. This technique gave him a chance to clear fears and suspicions of the Empire and convince them that his proposals have the best intention of

all parties.

If he was fixated with his own problem he couldn’t have understood the weakness and strength of the British Empire to bring it to an end.

The Ethiopia opposition groups must come out of victim mentality to see and understand fears and aspiration of the other groups including that of the ruling

party.

Rhetoric, slogan and condemnation will not solve the problem of the Ethiopia people. UEDF need a meeting of mind if it has to become a force to be reckoned

with.

To help political parties to become honest with each other I will outline fears of each party to the surface so that they can avoid beating the bush. But in any

way it is not exhaustive and readers could expand it.

1. FEARS OF EXILE PARTIES:

I am in exile. I breathe fears of exile groups. Unfortunately, UEDF is a union of two major geographical categories. Five of members of EUDF are from inside the

country while the remaining 9 are based in exile.

EDP, EDUP, AEUP, SEPDC and ONC were operating inside the country when UEDF was formed. (Since EDP has merged with EDUP to form UEDF the number of parties has dropped to 4). The 9 exiles parties are EPRP, Meison, part of Medhin, TAND, Hebrehizbe and others.

As a result of this geographic divide the exile parties have one major disadvantage to fear parties inside the country. Just because they are far away,

they do not want to be left out in the future Ethiopian political process and leadership. If they cannot take part in upcoming election it doesn’t matter who

else take part in the election to challenge EPRDF.

In fact from their point of view, they would prefer if all political parties boycotte the election and leave EPRDF in power until the right time comes where

all exile political parties could have equal footing within the country. But we shouldn’t’ expect them to say that in public because they are politicians. So

they have to devise a trick to persuade or intimidate those inside parties to boycott the election. At list they will plead that they should be left to make a

decison for the group at the last minute.

These exile parties feel that newborn parties within the country would undermine their long history if they are left to run alone. They also fear that local

opposition parties could grow at expense of exile parties to diminish the role of exiles. Therefore they have no choice but discourage those political parties who

are not prepared to wait for them until the right time.

For example EPRP and UEDP are truly multi-ethnic parties who share many things. Both parties target individuals who believe in multi-ethnic, urban based,

democratic, educated and liberal Ethiopians. As a result of this overlapping of constituency EPRP leaders fear that growth of UEDP inside the country is an

obstacle for future importance of EPRP. Hence, we should not be surprised if EPRP tries to undermine UEDP just like Meson did everything to stop EPRP in 1970’s

Therefore a prime pre-occupation of exile political parties is convince parties to boycott the election until exile groups are ready.

On contrary UEDP (EDP& EDU) and AEUP believe that they are formed to use every

possible opportunity to mobilize the public and challenge EPRDF. Therefore they fear exile political groups because they think that they are there to control them and use them for their own ends.

Since they believe this election as an opportunity to rally against the ruling party they are not prepared to abandon their desire to take part in the election process. Therefore the two parties fears that any suggest by exile groups to form a new transitional arrangement will be treated with suspicion as a means to controling mechanism.

Unless those exile groups come clean about their intention, these fears will kill any good intentions. That is why we need to demand an honest discussion rather than an art of politics.

2. ETHNIC vs. MULTI-ETHNIC.

Since TPLF took power ethnic based organisation have flourished. Most of them were with extreme secessionist views but others have advocated the middle ground to promote a united Ethiopia. Among this groups AAPO, SEPDC and ONC are the major one. At one time these parties were the most popular parties in Ethiopia who enjoyed huge support from all ethnic groups.

With a division of TPLF things have changed. The ruling party has shifted to the middle ground for its own survival taking the ground held by those parties.

On the other hand Multi-ethnic groups like EDP are gaining some ground in all sort of Ethiopian society. This moves has created fear in the minds ethnic based organisation and they feel trapped. Though they are more than capable of leading the country, by the own choice they have limitted their roles to local level.

They fear that there is no enough time to transform themselves in to multi-ethnic party or remain strong ethnocentric and get the sympathy of cross section of the Ethiopian people. Therefore they want to make sure that they keep the leadership of UEDF at any cost to set the rule of the game.

As a result of this fear rather than being a leader of UEDF they have turned defensive against multi-ethnic parties and want to use UEDF as vehicle to this end. They do not only aspire to drive EPRDF out from their regions but want also want to keep multi-ethnic political parties like UEDP out of their regons. Therefore, they get irritated and their prime focus has become UEDP.

As a result election is in their priority list. In fact if UEDP takes part in the election they want to boycott or if UEDP boycotts the election they will take part in the election as the only choice for Ethiopia people.

All these fears has brought them in alliance with far away mutli-ethnic groups like EPRP. On the other hand for these reason UEDP fears to be grilled by this strategic alliance in the meeting. Sadly EPRDF will not be on the agenda.

UEDF was formed to prevent this kind rivalary by being independent to negotiate differences between members parties. Unfortuntely, UEDF has already entangled itself to make the same mistake CODEF made.

Though lots of reasons have been thrown around to confuse the public the above are fears are the one driving UEDF in to difficulty. Controling UEDF and using for party poltical goal will dominate the meeting.

SOLUTIONS.

Having analysed the problem it is important to suggest solutions. I would also invite everyone to join me finding solution to reassure all political parties so that they can work together for liberation of Ethiopia.

1. Honesty is the best policy. Honesty towards each other and honesty towards the Ethiopian people has to be their guiding principle. We already know what they think and there is no point pretending that they are in love with each other. CODEF and CAFPDE have passed through similar pretentious rout to be become irrelevant. Therefore no need to pretend or no need to panic to draw a knife and stab each other since it is not the end of the world. Political parties must learn from mistakes made by EPRP and MESON to listen to each other’s fear to find a middle ground. Panic attack is the worst solution and should be avoided.

2. All political parties operating within Ethiopia should try to understand fears of political parties in exile. They are in exile not by choice. Please send us the money and we will lead the Ethiopian people wouldn’t make them calm. Parties inside the country should start a serious heart to heart talk with exile political groups to create a complete union so that a victory of one could be a victory of all. If that is not possible they should reassure exile groups that

are working to create a level ground for all.

3. Exile political parties should not panic to draw their knifes to stab or plant mines on the roads of political groups inside the country. A philosophy of strategic alliance must be abandoned. It has helped Mensgistu to stay in power and there is no doubt it will help Melese to cling on power. Instead exile groups should argue for what they rightfully deserve to force parties in the country to join them to open the door for all.

4. Exile political parties could only get in to the country with the help of political groups inside the country. So the strength of political parties within the country should not be perceived as a threat for the survival of exile political group.

5. Political parties within the country must feel paranoid to think that their misfortune is not all the making of sinister exile groups. Therefore they should open up to understand the fear of exile groups and to reassure them that they are working to create a level ground for all. More is expected from political groups inside the country to open the door for exile groups so that exile groups could get into the country to operate on equal ground.

6. The first priority of UEDF leadership inside the country should be opening the door for exile groups so that they can take part in the election. In the process if something happens to exile groups, parties inside the country must not abandoned them as CAFPDE abandoned Abera Yemanebrehan. Solidarity must prevail. They must help each other. In the same way UEDP encouraged and helped Medhin to get in to the country and all others should do everything possible to remove the fear of exile political parties.

7. Ethnic organisation must realise they have become a prisoners of their own creation. They must have a bigger vision for all Ethiopia people to compete on national level. For example what is stopping ONC and SEPDC from merging to create a bigger multi-national party.

8. Ethnic organisation must stop intimidation members of their own ethnic groups to discourage them for joining multi-ethnic parties. Ethnic parties must reassure that they respect individual choices, democratic principles of one-man-one vote. Politics is a dynamic process and growing in to all-inclusive political party must not be seen as admitting defeat.

9. Multi-ethnic groups within Ethiopia need to understand the fear of ethnic organisations to reassure them that they respect the choice and aspirations.

10. Finally, all parties need to be honest to the Ethiopia people. They should stop treating the Ethiopian people as morons, who do not understand tricks of political elites. Trust has been eroded in the past and it is can only be restored by being honest.

11. Above all, all parties must respect the choice of individual parties to be in UEDF or be out of it. Like Mengistu’s EMALEDEH ( MESON, SEDED, WAZLEG etc) members of UEDF should not say any one who is not in UEDF is our enemy. UEDF must realise that there is no a single way of solving a problem. If one party feel better off outside its decision must be respected. A dogmatic view that our way is the only way must be sent back to 1970’s.

I hope and pray that UEDF discuss all issues honestly to come out of a meeting hall strong. We need a meeting of mind and heart.